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(Written two days ago, and then – poof – no internet until now!)
P1970709 rio jama april 10 11

After punishing the Solomon Islands,  a now-category 5 ITA assaults the Western Pacific and bears down on Australia.  To my friends in Australia, I will be thinking of all of you and your country.  It seems when Mother Nature is swirling bad storms, she often kicks with a strong earthquake as well.  The moon is almost full, so everyone, beware!

(* I see that it downgraded to a category 3 but have not read any reports yet…

* – notices  also show that Nicaragua shook Central America, and there’s a tsunami watch from the Solomon Islands quake.  Goodness, Mother Nature, you’ve been busy, so please sit back and rest for a long while!)

View of Bahia de Caraquez, Ecuador

View of Bahia de Caraquez, Ecuador

When I ask people (in Manabi Ecuador) about El Nino of 1997/8, they often add, yes, and a really bad earthquake hit Bahia de Caraquez.

For the past month, I have kept one weather eye on the “Kelvin Wave” – a pocket of warm (hot?) water that’s perculating west of Ecuador. The weather gurus are comparing this year’s charts with the ones from 1997 and ’98 when El Nino focused his wrath on Ecuador and Peru.

Most say that a possible El Nino event all depends on the whims of the winds.   If the Kelvin Wave continues to be nudged to the east,  many eastern Pacific countries of South America should brace for torrential rains.

Between Rocafuerte and Portoviejo - Manabi - Ecuador

Between Rocafuerte and Portoviejo – Manabi – Ecuador – 2012

MANABI FLOODING P1450862

2012 – Manabi floods near Portoviejo during ‘normal’ rainy season…

 

Silvana tells of experiencing El Nino while stranded in her grandmother’s  home in Chone (Manabi Province) Ecuador.   One Peruvian periodical stated that the rains could start in the next few weeks.   Last night we received three inches of rainfall, and Rio Jama has been purging all day.   Was that the finale of our rainy season, or is El Nino just beginning to flex his muscles?

(from z archives) 30 inches of rain in three weeks - Costa Rica

(from z archives) 30 inches of rain in three weeks – Costa Rica

I am not a weather expert, but after living in Central America and experiencing torrential rains, I have witnessed flash floods and landslides caused by excessive rainfalls.   I don’t want to be an alarmist, but I also don’t want to be caught unprepared…   I also don’t want my friends to later ask, ‘Why didn’t you warn us?”

One cannot compare the tropical season rainfall in Central America to an El Nino year in Ecuador.    In remote Central America, one stocks up on drinking water, cooking gas, staples for the kitchen, and prepares for electricity outages.  How does one prepare for an El Nino?  If anyone has experienced the El Nino Phenomenon in South America, please share your stories with us!

Look!  Three inches of rain on this mud all but trapped me at the gates!  (New canal for the shrimp farm!  Pipes will be installed, and the road will be restored.)

Look! Three inches of rain on this mud all but trapped me at the gates! (New canal for the shrimp farm! Pipes will be installed, and the road will be restored.)

Hopefully all that I’ll have to worry about is the very muddy trek to town.   Did any of you experience the El Nino of 1998?

I will be thinking of those of you who are bracing for ITA.

Z

(Thanks for giving Barbara your great support, and for your approval of this week’s Timeout for Art.  I’ll be offline until Tuesday.)

Z

Additional reading:

Wunderground Blog – “Today’s post is very technical.”

Washington Post – Note Chart

Daily Kos – …El Nino Forming in the Pacific

Robert Scribbler – ITA Prepares to Slam Queensland

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